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<DIV dir=ltr align=center><SPAN class=552505612-01022010><FONT
face="Book Antiqua" color=#ff0000>The Dept. of Politics and Public
Administration invites you to its weekly seminar</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=center><SPAN class=552505612-01022010>
<DIV dir=ltr align=center><SPAN class=552505612-01022010><FONT
face="Book Antiqua" color=#008080>Wednesday 3rd February</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=center><SPAN class=552505612-01022010><FONT
face="Book Antiqua" color=#0000ff>MC2005
2.15-3.45</FONT></SPAN></DIV></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=center><SPAN class=552505612-01022010><FONT
face="Book Antiqua" color=#ff0000></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=center><SPAN class=552505612-01022010><FONT
face="Book Antiqua"><STRONG>Neil Robinson (UL)
</STRONG></FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=center><SPAN class=552505612-01022010><FONT
face="Book Antiqua"><STRONG>Our Motto: "Apocalypse Soon". Expectations of
conflict in the post-soviet space</STRONG>. </FONT></SPAN></DIV><SPAN
class=552505612-01022010><FONT face="Book Antiqua">
<P class=MsoNormal dir=ltr align=center><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><FONT size=3><FONT
face="Times New Roman">Abstract:<o:p></o:p></FONT></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal dir=ltr align=center><FONT size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal dir=ltr align=center><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><FONT size=3><FONT
face="Times New Roman">Many would characterize international politics within the
former <st1:place w:st="on">Soviet Union</st1:place> as being fraught with
competition and beset by weakness and chaos associated with contestations
between nations and identities. Surprisingly, however, there has not been
extensive conflict within the region. This paper asks why there have not been
more wars and why more conflict has been expected. It argues that conflict in
the region is expected because of the belief that state building in the area
would fail and the idea that weak states in the region will generate conflict
internally and externally. The paper focuses on the processes of transformation
in the former Soviet Union (with special reference to <st1:country-region
w:st="on">Russia</st1:country-region> and <st1:place w:st="on">Central
Asia</st1:place>) to show why state weakness has not generated conflict. It
argues that the mix of state and regime building in the area has stifled
conflict by suppressing state building in favor of regime stability. This has
created mechanisms to channel resources to elites and incorporate them in
durable political regimes. Conflict has thus been avoided, but the paper
concludes at a cost of state weakness that means that future conflicts cannot be
discounted.<o:p></o:p></FONT></FONT></SPAN></P></FONT></SPAN>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV class=Section1>
<P class=MsoNormal align=left> </P>
<P class=MsoNormal align=left>Ciara McCorley</P>
<P class=MsoNormal align=left>ISSP Government of Ireland Scholar</P>
<P class=MsoNormal align=left>Dept. Politics & Public Administration,
University of Limerick</P>
<P class=MsoNormal align=left>Tel: 061 234711</P>
<P class=MsoNormal> </P>
<P class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></P></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Book Antiqua" size=3><SPAN
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