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<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=2 color=black face=Arial><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black;font-weight:bold'>Department
of Politics and Public Administration Seminar, 3 February, 2.15, MC2005<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=4 color=black face=Arial><span style='font-size:
14.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'>Neil Robinson (UL) </span></font><font
size=4 color=black face=Calibri><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:Calibri;
color:black'>Our motto: </span></font><font size=4 color=maroon face=Calibri><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:Calibri;color:maroon'>“apocalypse
soon”. Expectations of conflict in the post-Soviet space</span></font><font
size=4 color=maroon face=Arial><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:Arial;
color:maroon'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=4 color=black face=Arial><span style='font-size:
14.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face=Arial><span style='font-size:
11.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'>Abstract:<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face=Arial><span style='font-size:
11.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face=Arial><span style='font-size:
11.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'>Many would characterize international
politics within the former <st1:place w:st="on">Soviet Union</st1:place> as
being fraught with competition and beset by weakness and chaos associated with
contestations between nations and identities. Surprisingly, however, there has
not been extensive conflict within the region. This paper asks why there have
not been more wars and why more conflict has been expected. It argues that
conflict in the region is expected because of the belief that state building in
the area would fail and the idea that weak states in the region will generate
conflict internally and externally. The paper focuses on the processes of
transformation in the former Soviet Union (with special reference to <st1:country-region
w:st="on">Russia</st1:country-region> and <st1:place w:st="on">Central Asia</st1:place>)
to show why state weakness has not generated conflict. It argues that the mix
of state and regime building in the area has stifled conflict by suppressing
state building in favor of regime stability. This has created mechanisms to
channel resources to elites and incorporate them in durable political regimes.
Conflict has thus been avoided, but the paper concludes at a cost of state
weakness that means that future conflicts cannot be discounted.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
11.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
11.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face=Arial><span style='font-size:
11.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'>Neil Robinson teaches in the Department
of Politics and Public Administration, UL, and is the author and editor of
several books about Russian politics, post-communist politics and political
economy, and comparative politics. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoAutoSig><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'>Neil Robinson<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoAutoSig><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'>Department of Politics and Public Administration<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoAutoSig><st1:place w:st="on"><st1:PlaceType w:st="on"><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>University</span></font></st1:PlaceType>
of <st1:PlaceName w:st="on">Limerick</st1:PlaceName></st1:place><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoAutoSig><st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on"><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>Limerick</span></font></st1:City>,
<st1:country-region w:st="on">Ireland</st1:country-region></st1:place><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoAutoSig><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'>(353) (0) 61 202320<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
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